Mental models, frameworks, and decision-making tools I use to build and advise. These show up in the playbook's friction blocks, in the strategy calls, and in how I evaluate my own work. The toolkit behind the thinking.
9 decision-making frameworks I keep coming back to. Click any card to expand.
Don't Throw Good Money After Bad
We continue investing in something just because we've already put time, money, or effort into it, even when the rational move is to stop.
You're two hours into a terrible movie and think, "I've already spent two hours, might as well finish." That's paying extra misery to justify time already lost.
It sounds like: "We can't cancel the project; we've spent nine months on it." or "I'll keep the subscription -- maybe I'll use it next year."
You're debating whether to keep a struggling project, investment, product, relationship, or subscription purely because of past effort.
Name one thing you're only doing because of past effort. What is the smallest step you could take this week to exit or reduce your commitment?
The Simplest Explanation Is Usually Correct
Between competing hypotheses that explain the data equally well, the simplest one -- with the fewest moving parts -- is usually the best starting point.
Your Wi-Fi dies and your first theory is a global cyberwar. Then you realize the router is unplugged. The universe rarely needs a conspiracy when a loose cable will do.
We jump to exotic explanations when something breaks instead of checking the boring, obvious things first.
You're troubleshooting bugs, outages, or confusing behavior -- or evaluating wild theories about why something happened.
Take a current problem and write down the most boring explanation you can think of. Test that before anything clever.
The Lean Startup Loop
Instead of betting everything on a big launch, you build the smallest thing that can test a hypothesis, measure what happens, and learn whether to pivot or persevere.
You could spend a year perfecting your app... or you could launch a janky landing page this week to see if anyone even wants what you're building.
Founders fall in love with building and treat learning as a side effect. They over-engineer v1, measure vanity metrics, and learn nothing useful.
You're building something new and feel the urge to polish endlessly before anyone sees it.
Write down your current product hypothesis in one sentence. Now write the smallest experiment you could run in the next 7 days to test it.
Play Where You Understand the Game
Your circle of competence is the set of domains where you genuinely understand what's going on. You don't have to be an expert at everything -- just know where you are and aren't competent.
A brilliant investor in consumer brands decides to dabble in biotech "for diversification." Spoiler: the molecules took his money.
Outside your circle, everything looks randomly good or bad. You're just guessing -- but with a dangerous illusion of understanding.
You're tempted by a shiny opportunity in a field you don't really understand (but your ego says you'll figure it out on the fly).
List three domains where you'd confidently bet your own money -- and three where you absolutely shouldn't.
Urgent vs. Important
Not all tasks are equal. Some are urgent and important (do now), some are important but not urgent (schedule), some are urgent but not important (delegate), and some are neither (delete).
Your inbox is full, Slack is screaming, and yet your big strategic project hasn't moved in weeks. Congratulations -- you've been living in Quadrants 1 and 3.
We confuse urgency with importance. We feel productive answering pings while our real goals quietly starve in the background.
You feel busy all day but can't point to anything meaningful you actually accomplished.
Take your current to-do list and ruthlessly delete at least one item that is neither urgent nor important.
Stay Hungry, Stay Foolish
Day 1 means you're still focused on customers, moving fast, and making decisions. Day 2 is stasis, then irrelevance, then death.
Amazon could have become a slow, bureaucratic giant. Instead, Bezos made 'Day 1' a company-wide mantra -- treat every day like you're still scrappy and customer-obsessed.
It sounds like: 'We're too big to move fast' or 'We need more process' or 'Let's optimize for efficiency over customer experience.'
You're scaling and feel the pull toward bureaucracy, slow decisions, or optimizing for internal metrics instead of customer value.
Name one process or meeting that exists more for internal comfort than customer value. What's the smallest step to eliminate it?
Break Down to Fundamentals
Instead of copying what exists or reasoning by analogy, strip away assumptions to find the core physics, math, or immutable laws -- then rebuild from there.
Musk didn't ask 'How do we make cheaper rockets?' He asked 'What does a rocket actually need?' Then he built SpaceX from first principles and cut costs by 10x.
We default to 'best practices' and 'industry standards' without questioning whether they're actually necessary or optimal.
You're stuck optimizing within existing constraints, or everyone says 'that's just how it works' and you suspect there's a better way.
Pick a current problem. Write down three assumptions everyone accepts. Now question: what if those assumptions are wrong?
Manual Work Before Automation
Startups try to automate before they understand. Manual work teaches you what customers actually want. Once you know, then you automate.
Stripe manually onboarded every customer in the early days. They learned exactly what customers needed, then built the perfect product.
We try to scale before we understand. We build systems for problems we don't fully understand yet.
You're building something new and feel the urge to automate everything before you understand what customers actually need.
What's one thing you're trying to automate? Could you do it manually for 10 customers first?
Will You Survive Without More Funding?
Most startups are default dead. They're burning cash faster than they can make it, hoping for a miracle. Know which one you are.
You have 6 months of runway and you're burning $50k/month. You need to raise $2M or you're dead. That's default dead.
We assume we'll raise more money. We don't calculate if we can survive without it. Most startups are default dead and don't realize it.
You're running a startup and want to know if you're actually viable or just hoping for a miracle.
Calculate: if you never raise another dollar, will you survive? If no, you're default dead. What's the fastest path to default alive?
135 tactical frameworks for positioning, feasibility, and planning. From the AI PM Cards deck.
Systematically evaluate which AI capabilities your product needs and assess technical feasibility.
Evaluate whether you have sufficient quality data to train or fine-tune AI models effectively.
Estimate the long-term maintenance costs of AI systems beyond initial development.
Define acceptable response times for AI features and architect systems to meet latency requirements.
Systematically identify and prioritize edge cases where AI will fail, then design mitigation strategies.
Plan when and how to combine multiple AI models to solve complex product problems.
Calculate the true cost per user or per action for AI features to ensure sustainable economics.
Articulate the specific value AI delivers to users, beyond what non-AI solutions can provide.
Determine how to monetize AI capabilities: bundled, add-on, usage-based, or premium tier.
Design free vs. paid AI feature splits that drive conversion while controlling costs.
Choose the right pricing model for AI products by evaluating usage patterns and customer preferences.
Test if your AI idea is technically possible by building a quick prototype in 1-2 weeks.
Design AI product tiers and packaging that align with enterprise buying processes and budgets.
Build data-driven ROI models that help customers justify AI product investments to their executives.
Systematically evaluate whether to build models in-house, buy commercial solutions, or use API services.
Implement strategies to reduce AI infrastructure and API costs without sacrificing user experience.
Systematically prioritize which AI features to build first based on value, feasibility, and strategic fit.
Plan the optimal order to release AI features based on dependencies, learning, and user adoption.
Structure AI product evolution in three phases: simple MVP, improved accuracy, and scaled platform.
Define the smallest AI feature that delivers real user value and validates core hypotheses.
Design and run controlled experiments to validate AI product hypotheses before full development.
Establish clear conditions for when to shut down or deprioritize AI features that aren't working.
Systematically prioritize AI technical debt against new features to maintain sustainable development velocity.
Plan regular cycles to evaluate and upgrade AI models as technology improves and data grows.
Decide when to invest in reusable AI infrastructure vs. building point solutions for specific features.
Frame the user problem you're solving before jumping to AI solutions.
Run interviews that uncover real problems, not what users think you want to hear.
Understand what users are really hiring your product to do.
Confirm the problem is painful enough that users will actually use your solution.
Estimate if solving this problem is big enough to justify AI investment.
Quickly prototype and validate AI solutions with users in 5 days.
135 frameworks for identifying what can go wrong and catching it early.
Understand the complete landscape of risks unique to AI products and when each type matters most.
Systematically evaluate and prioritize AI risks using likelihood, impact, and detection difficulty.
Ensure your model generalizes to real-world data instead of just memorizing training examples.
Monitor when real-world data patterns change, causing your model's performance to degrade.
Protect your model from malicious inputs designed to cause incorrect predictions or harmful outputs.
Make AI decisions understandable to users, auditors, and internal teams for trust and compliance.
Systematically test for unfair outcomes across demographic groups and use cases.
Plan for and monitor how model performance changes over time in production.
Quantify and communicate when your model is uncertain about predictions to prevent overconfidence.
Combine multiple models to improve reliability, reduce bias, and provide fallback options.
Systematically check training and production data for errors, inconsistencies, and quality issues.
Ensure your AI systems handle user data in compliance with GDPR, CCPA, and other privacy regulations.
Prevent and detect when training data contains errors, biases, or malicious examples that corrupt your model.
Protect your training pipeline from malicious actors injecting harmful examples to corrupt your model.
Plan for and recover from data pipeline outages that break model training or inference.
Ensure high-quality, consistent labels for supervised learning through systematic QA processes.
Automatically detect and remove personally identifiable information from training data and model outputs.
Create artificial training data to augment real data, protect privacy, or handle rare scenarios.
Block AI from generating dangerous, offensive, or harmful content through multi-layered safety systems.
Clearly communicate what AI can and cannot do to prevent misunderstanding and misuse.
Disclose when AI is involved in decisions and how it influences user experiences.
Design workflows where humans review and approve high-stakes AI decisions before execution.
Build graceful degradation when AI fails so users can still accomplish their goals.
Craft helpful, honest error messages when AI fails or produces low-quality outputs.
Systematically gather user feedback on AI quality to identify issues and drive improvements.
Build systems to detect and remove harmful user-generated content using AI + human review.
Systematically increase user confidence in AI through transparency, consistency, and demonstrated reliability.
Conduct regular audits to measure and improve fairness across demographic groups and use cases.
Proactively design AI systems to prevent unfair treatment based on protected characteristics.
Identify and plan for negative second-order effects of your AI system before they cause harm.
Systematically identify everyone affected by your AI system and understand how it impacts them.
Verify that AI system behaviors align with stated organizational values and ethical principles.
Establish and operationalize a set of ethical principles to guide AI development and deployment.
Use a structured process to evaluate and resolve ethical dilemmas in AI product development.
Conduct thorough impact assessments to understand social, economic, and ethical effects of AI systems.
Navigate the evolving landscape of AI-specific regulations across different jurisdictions.
Ensure AI systems comply with GDPR requirements for automated decision-making and data protection.
Navigate IP issues around training data, model ownership, and AI-generated outputs.
Understand and manage legal liability for AI system failures, errors, and harms.
Implement comprehensive logging and audit trails for AI systems to support compliance and investigations.
Create and maintain comprehensive documentation of AI systems for transparency, compliance, and knowledge sharing.
Minimize risk of failed deployments through testing, staging, and gradual rollouts.
Plan for and manage challenges that emerge when scaling AI from prototype to high-volume production.
Monitor and optimize AI infrastructure costs to maintain healthy unit economics.
Reduce dependency on single AI vendors to maintain flexibility and negotiating leverage.
Identify and manage ML-specific technical debt that accumulates faster than traditional software.
Create centralized visibility into AI system health, risks, and incidents across all dimensions.
Establish playbooks for responding to AI system failures, quality issues, or safety incidents.
Ensure your model is complex enough to capture important patterns and deliver useful predictions.
Give users meaningful control over AI behavior, personalization, and decision-making.
135 tactical how-to frameworks for shipping and operating.
Create comprehensive product requirements documents tailored for AI features with probabilistic behaviors.
Establish clear, measurable criteria for what "good enough" means for your AI feature.
Define testable conditions that AI features must meet before marking stories complete or shipping to users.
Systematically identify and specify how AI systems should behave when encountering unusual inputs or model failures.
Craft user stories that capture AI-specific requirements, uncertainty, and iterative learning needs.
Define technical constraints and non-functional requirements that limit model selection and architecture choices.
Build a standardized scorecard for comparing model candidates and making go/no-go decisions.
Specify when and how humans should review, override, or augment AI decisions.
Design systematic approach to gathering, labeling, and maintaining high-quality training data.
Build efficient, quality-controlled workflows for annotating training data at scale.
Implement smart sampling strategies that prioritize labeling the most valuable training examples.
Track and manage different versions of training datasets for reproducibility and model comparison.
Create artificial training examples to augment real data, especially for rare cases or privacy-sensitive scenarios.
Build safeguards to protect user privacy throughout data collection, training, and inference.
Systematically detect and fix data quality issues that degrade model performance.
Plan how and when to update training data to keep models accurate as the world changes.
Structure two-week sprints that balance model experimentation with product progress.
Log and compare model experiments to identify what works and maintain reproducibility.
Create simple benchmark models to measure if sophisticated ML approaches actually add value.
Assess model quality across multiple dimensions beyond simple accuracy scores.
Systematically improve model performance through structured iteration cycles.
Improve model speed and reduce costs without sacrificing accuracy.
Track, compare, and manage different model versions across environments.
Apply proven UX patterns that help users understand and trust AI-powered features.
Create UX patterns that keep users engaged while AI processes requests.
Create clear, actionable error messages when AI features fail or produce low-confidence outputs.
Communicate model uncertainty to users in intuitive, non-technical ways.
Structure AI interfaces to show simple results first with option to drill into details.
Create interfaces that help users understand why AI made specific decisions.
Build interfaces that capture user feedback on AI outputs to enable continuous improvement.
Educate users about AI capabilities, limitations, and how to get best results.
Create comprehensive test plans that cover model performance, system behavior, and user experience.
Design experiments to measure real-world impact of AI models and features.
Deploy new models in production without showing outputs to users to validate real-world performance safely.
Simulate adversarial attacks and edge case scenarios to find AI vulnerabilities before users do.
Validate that AI features meet user needs through structured testing with real users.
Measure and validate that AI models perform equitably across different user groups.
Build automated tests for AI systems that run continuously to catch regressions and issues.
Deploy AI features incrementally to manage risk and learn from early users before full launch.
Instrument production AI systems to track model performance, data drift, and system health.
Create visual dashboards that surface AI system health and performance for different stakeholders.
Define procedures for detecting, triaging, and resolving AI system failures in production.
Deploy mechanisms to gather user feedback on AI outputs for continuous improvement.
Track metrics that reveal whether users discover, try, and consistently use AI features.
Study how users interact with AI features to identify improvements and optimization opportunities.
Establish cadence and triggers for updating models with fresh data to maintain performance.
Reduce inference and training costs while maintaining model quality and user experience.
Systematically improve AI features based on user feedback, usage data, and performance metrics.
Systematically adjust model hyperparameters and architecture to improve accuracy and efficiency.
Decide when to deprecate or retire underperforming AI features to focus resources on higher-impact work.
Understand the end-to-end process of taking AI features from concept to production.
Learn the fundamentals of ML operations—deploying, monitoring, and maintaining AI systems in production.
Understand key metrics for evaluating AI models and when to use each one.
Build AI systems with multiple specialized agents working together to handle complex tasks that single models can't solve.